The departure of one Michael Schumacher has given rise to an even greater level of speculation than usual during the off-season. For how many years now, no matter how good which driver or which team looks during winter testing, an overwhelming number of “people in the know” would predict another Schumacher championship. Supposedly it was a safe bet – ‘let’s not go out on a limb and let’s be able to say “I told you so” end season’ kind of feeling. Except, of course, for the last two years, the Schumacher pundits have come short. And this year? With no Michael? There’s been quite a lack of season predictions, that’s what.
Despite this we’ll go out on a limb and make our own predictions. We’ll see by end season how right we were!
ING Renault F1
Drivers: Giancarlo Fisichella, Heiki Kovalainen
Test driver(s): Nelson Piquet Jr, Ricardo Zonta
Coming off two consecutive drivers’ and constructors’ championships, with the team leadership remaining a constant and Renault’s very strong reputation for reliability, there are many factors pointing to another great Renault year. The major factor pointing against it, of course, would be the driver-pairing. Make no mistake, the latest Finn to join the F1 fray has proven in many formulae that he has lightning pace and he is, after all, Flav the famous talent-spotter’s latest protégé. Heiki is, however, an F1 rookie and try and cast your mind back to when last a rookie won a championship (in fact, answers in the feedback space at the bottom of this article please). As for Fisi, the once widely-respected driver himself seems to be the only one with any hopes of him having a strong year.
The only real hope for Renault, who seems to be around third fastest at the moment judging by testing pace, is that they’ll be so dominant that the rookie can actually win, or that the car has been so geared towards Alonso for the past two years that Fisi could never have looked good in it until now. The latter scenario is infinitely more possible than the former. All in all, Renault will probably take third in the constructors’ this year. Expect Fisichella to beat Heiki early in the season but don’t be too surprised if the tables are turned later on.
Scuderia Ferrari
Drivers: Felipe Massa, Kimi Raikkonen
Test driver(s): Luca Badoer, Marc Gene
Early in winter testing there was the very widely held view that Ferrari had quite a significant advantage over its rivals owing to its long-standing relationship with Bridgestone. There are very few now that hold to this view. The tyres this year are so different from what has gone before that just about all knowledge that Ferrari has built up of Bridgestone tyres over the years has become virtually useless. On top of that, they’ve come up with a shorter wheelbase than anyone else and in theory that does not bode well for the fast wearing rear tyres the boys from Bridgestone have been supplying to all teams so far. The Ferraris have looked strong on pace but have by no means topped the time sheets in every test. In fact, Alonso dominated winter testing in his McLaren – it has only been in the last three weeks or so that Ferrari regularly topped the time sheets, mostly with Massa at the wheel.
Of course everyone is waiting with baited breath to see if Kimi can work with Ferrari, or the other way around. Some comments of Ferrari having to build a tank just to make sure that it doesn’t break into pieces at the hands of the Finn have been flying around but they are about is misguided as your average US president. Kimi’s cars didn’t break up at McLaren – his engines did. And with modern-day engine mapping it is virtually impossible for the driver to pop the engine due to driving style. The other early prediction that will likely not come true is that Raikkonen will decimate Massa. Ferrari and McLaren are very different teams and Raikkonen’s stretch to adapt to the red team and the new tyres should not be discounted. Kimi’s not getting a car purpose-designed for him like Alonso is and by all accounts testing has shown that Massa is far more comfortable with the F2007 (and probably the team) than Raikkonen. Massa will probably never achieve Raikkonen’s natural pace but the influence of the car’s suitability to its driver’s driving style is often underestimated. Kimi is, by all indications, struggling to adapt his driving style to either the F2007 or the tyres – or both.
Most likely a Ferrari driver will take the championship this year. Which one of the two it is depends largely on Kimi’s ability to master his new steed. If he does, he will dominate Massa in a way that not even Schumacher himself managed. If not, he will struggle to win a single race this season. So it is Ferrari for Constructors’ and a 50/50 on either of the boys in red to take the Drivers’.
Vodafone McLaren Mercedes
Drivers: Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton
Test driver(s): Pedro de la Rosa, Gary Paffet
Here be Ferrari’s biggest threat. McLaren’s testing pace has been awesome. Kimi may have left McLaren at exactly the wrong time as they have now had time to recover from Newey’s departure and are unlikely to repeat their uniquely winless 2006 season. Perhaps Alonso and McLaren’s biggest trump card is the focus of the car’s design on the Spaniard’s driving style. Alonso has a very unique style of dragging his car’s nose into a corner from a late turn-in point, almost daring it to understeer. A car suited to his style will make him a formidable opponent to anyone and McLaren has made it no secret that this year’s car was designed around him. This uncharacteristic focus on one lead driver will likely play to McLaren’s advantage.
The team-mate battle is almost not worth mentioning here. Hamilton has proven pace but he is and remains a rookie partnering a double world-champion. What will be interesting to watch is the battle between Kovalainen and Hamilton. Having two rookies in two top teams is not something we get to see often and the battle should be titanic – and therefore immensely watchable. They both stand a good chance of winning a race in their rookie year.
Honda Racing
Drivers: Jenson Button, Rubens Barrichello
Test drivers: Christian Klien, James Rossiter, Marco Andretti
Honda has the kind of motor sport-, and F1-, heritage that make many teams and car manufacturers green with envy. Oddly enough this year they’ve chosen to go green – much to the mirth and merriment of the F1 world in general. Their much-maligned new livery aside though, they again seem unlikely to live up to their former racing achievements. Honda have looked threatening in winter testing for four years running now but it was only last year that they eventually managed to win a race. One race. Of course, the British media will have you believe that Button is a driving demi-god and, while that certainly is quite an exaggeration, the fact is he really isn’t slow. Honda is one of those teams that are being watched closely by the main contenders – who are always wondering whether the Japanese team will suddenly come on form and prove the surprise of the season. While this is not impossible, it sure is improbable and Honda will likely be less there and more thereabouts once again this season.
As for the Barrichello vs Button fight that promised so much for the 2006 season and delivered so little? Perhaps this year will be different. The two took turns in dominating one-another last season, never providing any real in-race action for our viewing pleasure. At the very least this is an indication that they may be fairly evenly matched so watch out for some potential racing this year.
Honda would do well to take even fourth in the Constructors’.
BMW Sauber F1
Drivers: Nick Heidfeld, Robert Kubica
Test drivers: Sebastian Vettel, Timo Glock
The surprise of the off-season, BMW-Sauber have shown giant-killing pace during winter testing. Massa even predicted that, at the rate they were going, they could take the championship. Pity then, that they seem unable to couple that to even a semblance of reliability. They did say fairly recently that they were going to sacrifice some of that pace to make their cars more durable, so now we have to wait and see.
Will they be more reliable come race day? Sure. Will they show race-winning pace? No. They might, however, upset the apple cart and take fourth in the constructors’, or even third – though it’s quite unlikely. In truth they will do well to maintain fifth spot considering the wealth of competition they will face.
Watch closely, of course, the Heidfeld vs Kubica team-mate race. Heidfeld is a seasoned veteran by now who has driven alongside such highly rated drivers as Raikkonen and Webber – yet was never overshadowed. The demon qualifier that is Mark Webber inevitably started two or so places ahead of Heidfeld when they were team-mates at Williams in ’05 but somehow just about never managed to finish a race ahead of Quick Nick – the cool headed German always exhibiting greater race pace. Heidfeld then, is a good, and very solid, bet. Kubica, on the other hand, came charging onto the scene in dramatic fashion mid-2006 and impressed the F1 world straight away. He’s very, very fast and no mistake. Can he beat the experience and calm ability of Heidfeld over a season though?
Panasonic Toyota Racing
Drivers: Ralf Shumacher, Jarno Trulli
Test drivers: Frank Montagny
Another team that theoretically should be dominating the sport. Corporate Japanese management, however, seems even less likely to make an F1 team succeed than any other form of corporate management. The succession of sudden departures of high-level people from the team – most notably and recently Mike Gascoyne, indicates underlying issues that originate right at the top. Toyota simply is not a happy team and until management start doing things differently they are very unlikely to see the desired return on their huge investment. The point was aptly illustrated when, four races from the end of the season in 2005, they launched what was effectively their 2006 car and it was immediately apparent that it did not at all suit Jarno Trulli – undisputedly their dominant driver at the time. How do you get to a point where you launch a car that completely undermines the driving style of your top driver? Can you see that happening at Ferrari?
The team mate battle here was kept alive last year only by Trulli’s inability to adapt to the new car, and we’ll see if that remains the case this year. Ralf Schumacher has failed to impress anybody (except perhaps himself the bigwigs at Toyota) since he left Williams and his F1 career reached what must surely be its lowest point at Canada last year. Ambling around the track aimlessly as he was, he became nothing short of a semi-mobile chicane, endangering his fellow-drivers and stubbornly refusing to leave the track. To this day no-one can fathom why he stayed out.
Toyota is an unpredictable team. They may get up to as high as third in the constructors’ – what they will not do is win it. Also, their pace in winter testing even suggests that their target of a first win this year will again be their target for 2008.
Red Bull Racing
Drivers: David Coulthard, Mark Webber
Test drivers Michael Ammermuller, Robert Doornbos
An Adrian Newey-designed car with Renault power? Anyone remember the last time that combination took to the track? It took the Drivers’ championship twice in a row is what. Anyone remember the last time Coulthard won a race? Or in fact every time he won a race? He was in a Newey car. Every time. On paper, Red Bull Racing looks a menacing package this year. On tar however, they have so far proven mediocre. Could it be that Renault have found a way to give them fundamentally substandard engines, despite the engine-freeze? Perhaps – and Ferrari’s 2006 supply of engines that were below works’ team standards is exactly what the team tried to avoid by signing with Renault. Whatever the reason, it is apparent that RBR have a long way to go to be on the pace in Melbourne. They have, in fact, more often than not been beaten by little sisters Scuderia Toro Rosso – something they’ll wish to avoid at all costs. So we are not likely to see them winning the championship are we?
What we are likely to see is Coulthard being soundly out-qualified by Webber, only to beat the Ozzie to the chequered flag in most races. Coulthard has shown up the stronger contender in testing and Webber’s only weapon will be his immense qualifying ability. He will need to use it well because one feels that 2007 is Webber’s last chance to regain the respect he once had in the paddock.
RBR will make steady improvement during the season but Newey has not proven to be a silver bullet. They are a rookie team after all coming off a still terribly poor Jaguar base. Such obstacles take more than a few years to overcome.
AT&T Williams F1 Team
Drivers: Alexander Wurz, Nico Rosberg
Test drivers: Narain Karthikeyan, Kazuki Nakajima
Statistically the most successful team on the grid, Williams had their worst season ever in 2006. Sir Frank and Mr Patrick will want to leave that season far, far behind. Not only did they suffer a severe lack of reliability, their driver-pairing failed to impress as well. Rosberg punched far above his weight in the first race of the season, showing blistering pace and fuelling views that he may be the next big thing. He didn’t live up to that promise for the rest of the season – admittedly sometimes more due to his steed than his own capability.
All Webber did was reinforce the fact that he is a far better qualifier than racer. Wurz is something of an unknown considering he hasn’t raced a full season since 2000 but he has always been a solid driver – and Williams lacked that last season. Wurz, and a hopefully more mature Rosberg, should make for a dependable driver-pairing at least.
Other potential plusses are Toyota engines (though Cosworth received much more bad press last year than they deserved) which have always been near the top of the pile in terms of power and one Mr Rod Nelson. Rod Nelson was none other than Fernando Alonso’s race engineer and he has joined Williams in the capacity of chief operations engineer.
Williams will do better this year than they did in ’06 but one wonders if Sir Frank and Mr Patrick still collectively have what it takes. There was a time when Williams would never have come close to eighth in the Constructors’.
Scuderia Toro Rosso
Drivers: Vitantonio Liuzzi, Scott Speed
Test drivers: TBA
There seems to have been quite a rift between Gerhard Berger and ze uber management that comes down from Dietrich Mateschitz as of late last year. Berger continued to tell the media that neither Liuzzi nor Speed had anything to worry about in terms of their race drives, yet the announcement would just not come. Speed certainly did not set the world alight last season (as he completely failed to do in A1 racing) and the once promising Liuzzi was only marginally less erratic. On top of its continued reluctance to announce their race drivers, STR is the only team who is yet to announce their test drivers for the season. One would think that these stability issues would have a very negative impact on the team, yet thus far they have shown better pace in testing than big sister Red Bull Racing. The only obvious difference is the engine – perhaps Ferrari has abandoned their 2006 ways of providing its customer teams with sub-standard mills.
Liuzzi will once again show Speed the way, ultimately they will finish second to RBR and considering the fact that they are essentially running the same car as RBR they may even be forced to come up with a new car very quickly, or be heavily penalised. The 2007 STR season promises to be, at the very least, turbulent.
Spyker
Drivers: Adrian Sutil, Christijan Albers
Test drivers: Giedo van der Garde?, Adrian Valles, Markus Winkelhock
The former Jordan team may finally be back on track following Midland’s sale to the Dutch Sportscar manufacturer. They signed Ferrari as an engine supplier and famous (or infamous) technical point man and well-respected designer Mike Gascoyne is finally back at the team he came so close to guiding to a Drivers’ world championship back in ’99. The signing of Gascoyne was undoubtedly a coup of note for the team but it will not have immediate impact. In fact, Spyker are planning to launch a new, Gascoyne-designed car only mid season.
Considering RBR’s support of STR and Honda’s support of Super Aguri, Spyker may well find itself at the back of the grid – at least until its new car is launched. If the new lads at Aguri are not allowed to run the car they’ve been testing (basically a 2006 Honda design) though, Spyker’s looking better.
Sutil is new on the block and it will show as the cocky youngster makes a few mistakes. Albers is a veteran in comparison and will probably come out on top.
Super Aguri F1
Drivers: Takuma Sato, Anthony Davidson
Test drivers: Giedo van der Garde?, Sakon Yamamoto
This team’s fortunes rest almost entirely on the FIA allowing them to continue running their 2006 Hondas. They have finally abandoned their “all Japanese or bust” (literally) philosophy of signing drivers and took on a man with more F1 experience than most drivers on the track today – Anthony Davidson. Davidson deserves the race drive but, more importantly, will provide immense input into a team that is still struggling to find its feet. Takuma Sato has always been fast and for a change he managed to stay largely out of the wall and out of his competitors’ gearboxes in the latter part of 2006. The team-mate battle will certainly prove more exciting than any other aspect of the team.
Very little money will be placed on this team finishing anywhere else than last though – their only chance being Spyker’s new car not materialising.
Edu de Jager
DailyF1News.com
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